Tag Archives: economy

That Damn Debt

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The official U.S. total public debt outstanding breached $40 trillion for the first time in history. It stands at $40,047,426,000,000 according to data released by the U.S. Department of the Treasury. It has increased by about three trillion dollars since January 20, 2025, when the current administration took office.

Considering how much he likes to brag about setting records you’d think Donnie Trump would be in front of the cameras proclaiming, “Biggest debt in history! No one has ever seen a debt as big as this. America is first! We’re winning.”

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Economic Conundrum

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The May Employment Situation Report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) handily beat expectations, with the U.S. economy adding 172,000 nonfarm payroll jobs. Economists had forecasted a much more modest gain of roughly 80,000 to 85,000 jobs, making this a significant upside surprise.

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Trump’s Economy

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The charts above are certainly things Donald Trump did not want to see. Unemployment rate up. Total employment down. They come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics‘ report on employment in the United States for August. Just last month the July report, showing a slowing economy, led Trump to fire BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer. I wrote a few weeks ago that it was a case of shooting the messenger. Trump falsely claimed downward revisions in the August report were “rigged” to make Republicans look bad. BLS revisions are routine and based on updated employer data. It would be nearly impossible to “rig.”

Just 22,000 nonfarm payroll jobs were added in August. That was below expectations and continued the summer slowdown. The Unemployment Rate rose slightly to 4.3%, up from 4.2% in July. Long-Term Unemployment held steady at 1.93 million, now representing over 25% of all unemployed individuals.

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Kill the Messenger

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Every damn day. That’s what it seems like. Every damn day the man seventy-seven million Americans voted back into office does something more outrageous than the day before. It is exhausting.

Trump eviscerates environmental protections. He accuses former President Barack Obama of treason. He rips up labor agreements. He plans to privatize Social Security. He forces the Smithsonian to take down an exhibit that includes his two impeachments. The European Union, Japan, Columbia University, and CBS are all surrendering to him.

And now he fires the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics because he doesn’t like the jobs numbers.

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The Trump Recession

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The Trump Recession is upon us. Not officially, that could take months. But the handwriting is on the wall. Just as clear as it was one year ago when every creditable economist warned Donald Trump’s plans for trade tariffs and government layoffs would knock the Goldilocks economy of Joe Biden off its feet. Seventy-seven million voters didn’t believe it. Or didn’t care. Now they can care. Or not. It’s hard to tell.

The latest GDP report shows that the U.S. economy contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025, marking a sharp downturn from the 2.4% growth in the final quarter of 2024. This decline was largely driven by a surge in imports ahead of Trump’s newly announced tariffs, which widened the trade deficit and negatively impacted GDP calculations.

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It’s Still the Economy, Stupid

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One thing the political polls agree on is the number one concern on the minds of voters. It’s the economy. It is ALWAYS the economy.

The problem, at least for Vice President Harris, is that what voters call the economy is not what economists call the economy. What voters mean when they say economy is prices as in, the price of a gallon of gasoline, the price of a bottle of milk, the price of a dozen eggs. Those prices are up. And as is usual, the incumbent gets the blame.

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A Breath of Fresh Air

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It some ways it was certainly unusual. But mostly its normalcy made it a breath of fresh air. For more than an hour President Joe Biden delivered a report to Congress, the nation, and the world on the state of the state one hundred days into his administration. He laid out the achievements already accomplished, the programs now under way, and the proposals he is sending to Congress for enactment into law.

One way the speech was unusual was that there were two women behind the president. Presiding over the joint session of Congress were Vice-President Kamala Harris, who is President of the Senate, and Nancy Pelosi, the Speaker of the House of Representatives. That was a historic first. Another way was that the chamber, which normally holds 1,600 people for these events, was limited to 200 by pandemic protocols. The audience members were socially distanced and most were masked.

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