US at 250

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“The Second Day of July 1776, will be the most memorable Epocha, in the History of America. I am apt to believe that it will be celebrated, by succeeding Generations, as the great anniversary Festival. It ought to be commemorated, as the Day of Deliverance by solemn Acts of Devotion to God Almighty. It ought to be solemnized with Pomp and Parade, with Shews, Games, Sports, Guns, Bells, Bonfires and Illuminations from one End of this Continent to the other from this Time forward forever more.”

John Adams, Letter to Abigail Adams, July 3, 1776

John Adams, by far the most prescient of the founders, described Independence Day in this letter sent to his wife Abigail on July 3rd, 1776. He got most of it right.

Adams predicted that the anniversary of American independence would be celebrated forever. He expected July 2 to become Independence Day because that was the day Congress approved Virginia’s resolution that the thirteen colonies declare their independence from England. Instead, we celebrate July 4, the date on which the text of the Declaration of Independence was approved and eventually printed with that date. But his description, parades, bells, fireworks (“illuminations”), bonfires, sports, and public celebrations, closely resembles how we celebrate the Fourth of July today.

Adams foresaw the growth of the United States of America to span the continent from west coast to east. And his letter to Abigail captures his confidence that the new nation would endure as a great nation among those of the world.

I often wonder, in this age of divisiveness, if we have fulfilled Adams’s dreams. The United States is unquestionably the world leader in many respects. It has the world’s biggest economy. It has grown dramatically in population. It has expanded to stretch from one ocean to the next. It claims to have the most powerful military, although it doesn’t seem to be able to keep a strait essential to the world’s energy supply open. It certainly outspends the next dozen or so countries on that military. Adams foresaw those things and I think on those points the United States today would please him.

But he would be less pleased to discover that his biggest fears have also come to pass. He wrote of the dangers facing the new republic. His biggest fear came not from without, but from within. He warned that avarice could produce leaders who put personal gain over the needs of the people. He predicted that under certain circumstances, factions succumbing to greed for power and money could infect multiple branches of government and defeat the system of checks and balances the framers wrote into the Constitution in 1787. I do not believe he would be pleased with the current state of affairs in Washington.

The Declaration was always a contradiction. It famously contains what the great biographer Walter Isaacson calls, “The Greatest Sentence Ever Written.” Yet the author of, ““We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty, and the pursuit of Happiness,” Thomas Jefferson, was a slaveholder throughout his entire life, as were many of the Revolutionary era leaders.

Jefferson listed slavery as one of the evils brought to the new world by the King of England. But that sentence was removed from the Declaration during the final debate. Jefferson later wrote it was the price for gaining the acquiesce of South Carolina and Georgia to the independence resolution.

Slavery wasn’t abolished until the 13th Amendment was ratified in 1865, after the Civil War. Voting rights for women didn’t arrive until the 20th century, with ratification of the 19th Amendment in 1920.

Many people believe the nation should work toward unity, the assimilation of the various immigrant groups which have arrived on our shores in waves over the years. This is what I call the “great melting pot” strategy. This may be the answer other countries, where the population is homogeneous and it is easy to be loyal to a race or a land. The United States has never been that. Unless you can trace your lineage to the indigenous people, and only about two per cent of the population can, then you trace your roots to someplace else. We expect immigrants to be loyal to the country, and history proves they are. Yet we retain as important parts of our identity those aspects of heritage which our ancestors brought to these shores.

There is no question that this diversity, a word the present administration sees as obscene, adds to our divisions. But history proves it is also a source of great strength. We should embrace the diversity of our people. We should strive toward tolerance and understanding of fellow Americans who have stories which are different than our own. Our diversity makes it clear that the people who are Americans choose to be Americans. I see in the continuing clamor of people from all over the world to immigrant to the United States evidence that we are doing something right.

For me the obvious contradiction between the words of the Declaration and reality is resolved by viewing the Declaration we celebrate today as aspirational, rather than literal. The document was a statement of profound principles and ideals, rather than a word-for-word reflection of 1776 reality. It remains so to this day as we strive to, in the words of the great preamble to the Constitution, “form a more perfect union.” For me, that gives hope that we can come closer to our goals. Someday.

“You will think me transported with Enthusiasm but I am not.—I am well aware of the Toil and Blood and Treasure, that it will cost Us to maintain this Declaration, and support and defend these States.—Yet through all the Gloom I can see the Rays of ravishing Light and Glory. I can see that the End is more than worth all the Means. And that Posterity will tryumph in that Days Transaction, even altho We should rue it, which I trust in God We shall not.”

John Adams. 1776

Do we see on the occasion of our 250th birthday John’s rays of ravishing light and glory?

Do we agree with Adams, that the end is more than worth all the trials and tribulations, the blood and the treasure? That the end is more than worth all the means?

It’s up to us now. And to the generations to come.

Happy Birthday America.

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Yearning to Breathe Free

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The poem on the pedestal of the Statue of Liberty in New York Harbor is a sonnet titled “The New Colossus,” written by American poet Emma Lazarus in 1883. Its famous lines, “Give me your tired, your poor, / Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free” transformed the statue from a monument of generic liberty into a worldwide symbol of immigration, refuge, and hope.

Lady Liberty was the first thing millions of immigrants saw as they arrived in the New World. “Her name,” the poem declares, is “Mother of Exiles. From her beacon-hand Glows world-wide welcome.”

Not anymore. Unless you can trace your lineage to the indigenous people of North America, and only about 2% of the current population of the United States can do so, your ancestors came from someplace else. As you contemplate the 250th anniversary of the birth of our nation, you might consider that without the welcoming arms of the United States, your personal history would be quite different.

Although the United States is a nation of immigrants, there has always been a faction which opposes it. French and Irish immigrants were targeted in the 1790s. In 1798, President John Adams signed the Alien and Sedition Acts. This extended the naturalization residency requirement from 5 to 14 years and allowed the government to deport “dangerous” open-door arrivals.

Catholics were the targets in the 1840s. Protestant Americans feared that an influx of Catholics would be loyal to the Pope rather than the U.S. government. The late 19th Century brought racial exclusion with the target being Chinese and other Asian laborers. Congress passed the Chinese Exclusion Act of 1882. It was the first major federal law to ban immigration based explicitly on race and nationality. The 20th Century brought a quota system, starting with the Immigration Act of 1924.

Modern opposition to immigration in the United States differs from historical eras by focusing heavily on border security, legal status, and federal enforcement rather than explicit racial exclusion. Under the administration of Donald Trump, the federal government has pushed measures like the “One Big Beautiful Bill” Act and the Laken Riley Act, which expand mandatory detentions, mandate higher federal funding for border walls, and limit federal benefits for even lawfully present immigrants. At this time immigration to the United States has basically stopped. With the exception of a special exception for white South Africans who claim they are being persecuted in their home country.

We as a people are deeply split on this issue. Data from Pew Research Center shows that about 52% of Americans believe current administration tactics go “too far” on deportations, highlighting a steep partisan gap. According to polling compiled by NORC, while a majority of Republicans strongly back federal agencies like Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), most Democrats and independents hold unfavorable views of hardline enforcement. Conversely, a vast cross-partisan majority of voters (around 72%, according to the National Immigration Forum) favor a compromise solution pairing strict border security with a path to earned legal status for those already in the country.

Congress’s ongoing inability to pass a comprehensive, long-term immigration reform bill has left America’s immigration system broken, forcing a reliance on executive orders and courtroom battles instead of permanent laws. For decades, the standard playbook of a “grand compromise” pairing enhanced border enforcement with a pathway to legal status for undocumented immigrants has repeatedly collapsed under intense partisan polarization.

Because Congress cannot pass permanent laws, immigration policy changes drastically with every presidential administration. Borders are managed and humanitarian protections are granted or revoked entirely by executive actions, which are immediately challenged in court.

Last week the Supreme Court issued two monumental 6-3 rulings that significantly expanded the federal government’s power to enforce hardline border restrictions and strip protections from long-term residents. Both decisions split strictly along the Court’s conservative-liberal divide. They represent major legal victories for the Trump administration’s “America First” anti-immigration agenda.

Both majority opinions were written by Justice Samuel Alito. In Mullin v. Doe, dealing with Temporary Protected Status, the majority emphasized that federal courts are legally prohibited from reviewing the Department of Homeland Security’s policy decisions on TPS, rejecting arguments that the terminations were racially motivated.

“There is no judicial review of any determination of the [Secretary of Homeland Security] with respect to the designation, or termination or extension of a designation, of a foreign state under this subsection… This text is clear, and its plain meaning is very broad.”

Mullin v. Doe, Alito, Majority Opinion

The liberal justices argued that the Court bypassed critical constitutional tests regarding equal protection and executive bias. In her dissent, Justice Sonia Sotomayor called out the administration’s past derogatory statements about the affected nations.

“The references—of filth, disease, and primitiveness—are shot through with racial stereotypes and tropes… The statements fairly shout, in their racial undertones and overtones alike, that race entered into the President’s resolve to remove Haitians from this country.”

Mullin v. Doe, Sotomayor, dissenting

In Mullin v. Al Otro Lado, dealing with asylum eligibility, the conservative majority focused strictly on the literal geography of the border line under the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA).

“An alien standing in Mexico does not ‘arriv[e] in the United States’ by attempting, and failing, to set foot in this country. An alien ‘arrives in the United States’ only when he crosses the border.”

Mullin v. Otro Lado, Alito, Majority Opinion

Dissenting again, Justice Sotomayor (joined by Justices Kagan and Jackson), found the liberal minority arguing that the ruling functionally dismantles humanitarian protocols established by Congress.

The majority’s decision “blesses the Executive Branch’s decision to slam the door shut on all who are fleeing persecution, despite the detailed inspection and asylum system that Congress enacted and commands.”

Mullin v. Otro Lado, Sotomayor, dissenting

The initial effect of the first decision will be the immediate loss of TPS legal status for 350,000 people, mostly Haitian. That strips them of deportation protections and valid work permits and puts them at immediate risk of arrest and removal. The effect of a second decision clears the Trump administration to continue its current policy of turning away asylum seekers who come the U.S. borders.

Trump advisor Stephen Miller, who has led the administration’s anti-immigration policy, says the administration will move to remove the roughly 1.3 million TPS migrants, warning that “if you no longer have status in this country, then you’re supposed to be deported.” Miller’s ancestors escaped Russian pogroms and the Holocaust. He also declared, “America’s doors are closed fully to asylum seekers”, dismissing asylum applications as “fake.” Trump’s ancestors came from Germany and Scotland.

The welcome mat has been pulled up at the door of the once-shinning beacon of hope for the world.

Happy 250th.

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It’s not Easy Being Green

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The economy, the war, the arch, the east wing, all of these controversies swirling around Washington these days seem to pale when compared to the saga of the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool. The pool recently underwent a $14 million repainting project ordered by Donald Trump. However, within two weeks of refilling, the pool developed severe algae blooms that turned the water green, and its new blue paint began peeling in large chunks.

Trump insisted that the bottom of the pool be repainted “American flag blue” and that the work be completed well before the nation’s 250 birthday celebration on the Fourth of July. But the repainting did not address the well-known problems with the pool, which is more than one hundred years old.

Trump has claimed, with his usual lack of evidence, that the peeling paint and algae were caused by vandals who slashed a 300-foot gash in the sealant and dumped chemicals into the water. In a court filing, an official with the National Park Service declares, “… the U.S. Park Police responded to an NPS report of damage to the reflecting pool, including a caulk over the foam sealant that was cut with a sharp knife or razor and destruction of delaminating surface material. In addition, approximately 70 fence post tops were thrown into the pool.”

U.S. Park Police say they have arrested and cited multiple individuals in connection with the claims. Funny thing about this. There has been no public arraignment of anyone charged with this vandalism and no notice of arrests. Both would be normal procedure. And the area of the pool is under 24-hour surveillance, and no pictures have surfaced showing any kind of vandalism. In spite of the arrests, the only visual evidence shows someone bending over and putting her hands in the water. Another woman is seen taking pictures of the water with her mobile phone.

Trump has called for harsh penalties for the alleged vandals. That means if you vandalize the reflecting pool you will have the book thrown at you. If you attack the Capitol and beat Capitol Police, you will get a pardon and be entitled to compenensation. Go figure.

Critics and experts suggest that the peeling may be due to a faulty renovation. They say the material installed at the bottom of the pool should resist cutting and tearing. But they also say the material may not have been able to adhere to the concrete surface. Scores of federal government workers have now been deployed to combat the green, a battle Trump compared to the war with Iran. Workers were seen on site in waders, attempting to fish out algae and eliminate patches of deep green across the pool.

As the “green crisis” unfolded, the U.S. Department of the Interior, which oversees the National Park Service, had claimed the water was “crystal clear”, and blamed the “Fake News Media” for reports to the contrary. “The Reflecting Pool water is crystal clear, and our National Park Service team is now vacuuming up the dead algae resting on the bottom of some parts of the Reflecting Pool – just like the destroyed Iranian Navy resting on the bottom of the Persian Gulf,” the department’s press office posted. Why believe what you can see with your own eyes when you can believe what the government is telling you?

The experts say Trump’s rush job was a recipe for failure at each step.

  • Step 1: Remove filters in Reflecting Pool because Obama put them in.
  • Step 2: Give your neighbor who runs “Greenwater Services” a $20 million no-bid contract to paint the pool.
  • Step 3: Personally inspect the work by driving your motorcade of ten heavy armored SUVs on its surface.
  • Step 4: Fill the pool with water from the Potomac River, the phosphates from which cause algae blooms.
  • Step 5: Freshly sealed pool and extreme heat, aggravated by the dark blue color, results in a super scum event. 
  • Step 6: Direct National Park Service to dump hydrogen peroxide into the pool which kills algae but also causes the paint to peel.
  • Step 7: Deploy US National Guard to stop people from taking photos of the swamp as a perfect metaphor for the administration. Put up a fence around the pool to keep people away.

The proper way to repair and update this national treasure is well known and has been known for years. But the plan is expensive and will take time. It includes completely replacing the pool’s concrete foundation with stone. The concrete has cracked as the bottom of the pool, built on swampland as is most of Washington, has settled. The plan would also contend with the pool’s ongoing water-loss issues, caused by the breaking of pipes also caused by the settling ground. Formal estimates on cost and time have not been released although the numbers $100 million and four years have been cited before by the National Park Service.

The landmark pool may now be dry and inaccessible on the Fourth of July.

Wait until Trump builds his arch.

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This is How It Should Be

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This is a great picture in these troubled times. All four of the living former Presidents of the United States, and First Ladies, gathering in Chicago for the opening of the Barack Obama Presidential Center. It was an uplifting event, full of hope and optimism for the future of a country about to celebrate the 250th anniversary of its birth. The only downside was that we found ourselves noting how remarkable it was. This is how it should be.

It was a fitting memory of those eight years of Obama’s history-making presidency. Something I thought I would never live to see as I grew up in the 1960s, during the turmoil of the civil rights protests. For four years I rode my bike, weather permitting, right past the spot in Jackson Park where the Obama Center now stands. I was going from our apartment just north and east of the location to my high school in the middle of the University of Chicago campus, just to the west.

The ceremony was, like the Obamas themselves, classy and dignified. President Obama spoke not about himself, but about the accomplishments of the team he put together in Washington. He focused on rejecting political cynicism, defending American democracy, and honoring the South Side community that shaped his early career. He said, “I found my purpose here, and I fortified my faith here, and I found my community here.” He noted that the Jackson Park location sits near where he met Michelle, where they married, and where his daughters took their first steps.

President Obama stated he did not want the center to feel like a static “mausoleum” or evoke “nostalgia for some gauzy, bygone era.” Instead, he designed it to address the “unfinished business” of progress. He described democracy as frustrating, slow, and inefficient, but called on visitors to view the center as an affirmation of why democracy is so precious. He explicitly urged us to reject growing cultures of mistrust, declaring that giving in to cynicism would be a “betrayal of our founding ideals.” He closed his speech by channeling 19th-century abolitionist Theodore Parker, describing a “defiant call not to abandon hope or give way to fear,” reminding the crowd that the country must keep fighting even in the face of impossible odds.

What few political zingers were heard came from former First Lady Michelle Obama, who introduced her husband. She praised her husband’s resilience under fire, redefining what a “lasting legacy” means, and positioning the Center as a refuge from modern political chaos. She addressed him directly, saying, “Eight years in the crucible and not once did you melt in the heat. Not once did you let it harden you.”

“You were unflappable at every turn, always focused, always calm, always looking at the long view,” the former First Lady said to her husband. “How absurd it is to even imagine that you might have buckled under the pressure even once, lashed out in frustration, lost your temper. How absurd it is to imagine that you might have done anything but make our family and this entire country proud.”

“No, you were too busy. I’m not done, y’all! Not done,” Mrs. Obama continued as the crowd roared with approval. “So much to say. You were doing the people’s work, rescuing our economy, expanding healthcare, ending a war, ordering the Bin Laden raid, saving an auto industry, winning a peace prize.” Seated in the wing, Hillary Clinton burst out laughing at the obvious jab and President Obama laughed along with her.

We shall leave he-who-was-not-directly-named to sit in the Oval Office fuming. This was a private, not a state event, and he was not invited. The Obamas live in his head to this day.

The entertainers included John Legend, Stevie Wonder, Jennifer Hudson, Bono, the Roots, Christina Aguilera, Common, Marc Anthony.

It is not just a look into the past, but a living testament for the future.

It was as it should be.

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Up, Up, and Away

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Space X Launch

I have not held back on my feelings for Elon Musk. But his persona and his work for the Trump administration notwithstanding, I will concede that he is the greatest marketer since P. T. Barnum. Barnum was a 19th century showman, self-made entrepreneur, and co-founder of the Barnum & Bailey Circus. He is often credited for coining the phrase, “There’s a sucker born every minute” although there is no evidence that he actually said it. Elon Mush might have been able to sell shares in his company, SpaceX (Ticker: SPCX), to Barnum. He did manage to sell shares to millions of retail investors.

As of this writing, SPCX had overtaken Amazon to become the world’s fifth-most valuable public company. It trails just behind Microsoft. Its market capitalization sits at approximately $2.66 trillion. This is all within days of setting records as the largest initial public offering (IPO) in history. SpaceX priced its shares at $135 each, offering 555.6 million shares and raising about $75 billion.

It is an amazing achievement when one considers the fact that, on paper, this valuation is unsupported by any reasonable standard. Mainstream financial analysts note that the company’s $2.66 trillion market cap trades at a staggering, speculative 142x price-to-sales ratio, especially considering the company logged a $4.9 billion net loss last year.

Bulls are pricing in Elon Musk’s projection that SpaceX could achieve $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030 following its merger with xAI. xAI is another one of Musk’s companies. It develops artificial intelligence tools and is the creator of the AI chatbot Grok. According to its prospectus, SpaceX has accumulated a total loss of $41.3 billion since it was founded in 2002.

There is a third leg to the SpaceX story. Musk, who became the world’s first trillionaire based on his combined stakes in SpaceX and Tesla, may have started the company as a reusable rocket maker, but the only profitable part of the business today is the Starlink satellite internet division. It has brought the Internet to the world.

The sight of rocket ships (SpaceX Falcon) landing upright on their tails, ready for reuse, excites anyone who, like me, watched Flash Gordon’s spaceship do the same thing on Saturday morning television as a child. But SpaceX is already on to the next thing. It has a new rocket, Starship, which is still in its test phase, and failing spectacularly. SpaceX has also stimulated competition, and one has to consider the future market for launch services to value its profit potential in the years ahead.

Musk wasted no time in putting his company’s new cash infusion to work. Less than a week after the IPO SpaceX announced a $60 billion purchase of Cursor, a privately company currently owned by Anysphere. Cursor is the hottest AI coding tool in the world. It helps developers write, edit and review computer code. This will be one of the biggest AI acquisitions ever. Anthropic, which has filed for its own IPO, currently dominates the AI coding market with its Claude-based tools.

SpaceX share prices rose following the IPO and jumped when the Cursor acquisition was announced. But rational investors still scoff at the idea of paying 140 times revenue for a company. A rational investor will also note that only about five percent of SPCX is in play right now. That makes supply short and raises prices. Beginning sixty days after the IPO (mid-August), the various lockout periods begin to expire. At that point, insiders who had shares before the offering either as employee benefits or private investment, can begin selling their shares. There are hundreds of newly minted millionaires who will want to do that. This will increase supply and would be expected to push the stock price down.

So, the rational investor will stay away and compare buying of SPCX shares to rolling the dice in Las Vegas. Personally, I’ve always enjoyed the shows and the restaurants in Vegas but am not inclined to gamble there. I take a few wild shots on Wall Street instead. This may be one of them.

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Poof! It’s Gone. Maybe.

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We think Donald Trump‘s name has been removed from the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts. At least, that what Trump’s handpicked board of directors told the District Court for the District of Columbia in a filing on Saturday. The removal had been ordered by the court two weeks earlier in a decision enforcing the Center’s original statutory name.

Trump’s name was added in December 2025 after he replaced the Kennedy Center’s leadership and the new board voted to rename the institution. The court found this action illegal, ruling that the board cannot unilaterally change the name of a national memorial.

In his 94-page decision, U.S. District Judge Christopher Cooper wrote, “The Kennedy Center’s organic statute makes crystal clear that the Center is to be named for President Kennedy, and it cannot bear any other formal name or public memorial based on the Board’s unilateral say-so. Congress gave the Kennedy Center its name, and only Congress can change it.”

The renaming triggered a large outcry and a boycott of the Center by patrons, performers, and donors. A crowd of several hundred people gathered on Saturday at the Center to witness the removal of Trump’s name from the exterior. Which brings us to my use of the word “maybe.”

While the Trump lettering was put up by workers on simple lifts, workers Saturday first erected an expansive scaffold in front of the lettering. Then they draped a large curtain or tarp to prevent people from watching their work. Several web cams had been pointed on the sign, transmitting the image around the world. The curtain remains up on Sunday morning. We have only the sworn statement of Trump’s board of directors that the name has been removed.

Why is the curtain still up? Perhaps Trump just couldn’t stand to see the empty space his name once filled. And didn’t want to watch his name coming down.

This is not the end of the lawsuit, which had been brought by Rep. Joyce Beatty (D-Ohio), an ex officio trustee who sued her fellow trustees for adding Trump’s name to the title of the Kennedy Center. Hours before Friday’s deadline, two courts denied the Kennedy Center’s last-ditch attempt to delay the removal, even as crews erected scaffolding next to the building.

Judge Cooper ruled at 1 p.m. that the Kennedy Center’s lawyers failed to demonstrate they were likely to win their appeal or that the center would suffer “irreparable harm” if Trump’s name were removed. At 3:46 p.m., Justice Department lawyers representing the center appealed Cooper’s denial, filing an emergency motion for a stay with the Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit. Shortly after 7 p.m., the appeals court denied the second attempt. But the appeal will continue.

The addition of Trump’s name sparked immediate backlash from the arts community and members of the Kennedy family, who argued that the renaming desecrated a living memorial to the assassinated president. Congress established the center in 1964, two months after Kennedy’s death, designating it “the sole national monument to his memory within the city of Washington and its environs.”

Trump’s Department of Justice, paid for by taxpayers, represents him in these cases.

Last week the Center was also sued by the Washington National Opera. The WNO performed in the Center for fifty years but decamped when Trump took over. The opera claims the Center is refusing to return more than $17 million dollars of endowment contributions, gifts and donations which it managed on behalf of the WNO.

June 16 Update

Official word from The Kennedy Center is that the tarps will stay up for the “two-year renovation” and “replacement” of the marble facade slabs. Trumpian subtext, “OK, my name may be removed, but I’m not going to let you see it!!!! Na Na Na Na-Na.” And make no mistake about it, Trump is still the Chairman of The Kennedy Center, and his “Board” are 100% partisan sycophants.  The Kennedy Center is still in mortal danger.

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Inflation!

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Grocery prices

Go ahead. Tell me the higher prices we see staring back at us every day at the grocery store and the gas pump are just a temporary thing. I dare you.

The latest inflation report shows that price pressures heated up again in May, with the Consumer Price Index rising 0.5% month‑over‑month and 4.2% year‑over‑year, the highest annual rate since April 2023. That 4.2% figure matched economists’ expectations, but it still marks a clear acceleration from April’s 3.8% pace. The monthly increase was driven heavily by energy costs, which jumped 3.9% in May and are up 23.5% over the past year, reflecting the ongoing impact of the Iran conflict on global oil markets. Gasoline alone surged 7% in May and more than 40% compared with a year ago, accounting for the majority of the overall CPI increase.

Core inflation—which excludes food and energy—remained more subdued. Core CPI rose 0.2% for the month and 2.9% year‑over‑year, both in line with forecasts and cooler than April’s monthly reading. That suggests underlying inflation pressures are not spiraling, even as headline inflation is being pushed higher by energy. Some categories even showed mild relief: core commodities slipped 0.1%, and food prices rose only 0.2% on the month, though they remain 3.1% higher than a year ago. Still, essentials like electricity and medical care continue to climb at rates above 3%, contributing to the financial strain many households feel.

The report lands at a delicate moment for the Federal Reserve. Markets widely expect the Fed to hold rates steady at its June 17 meeting, but policymakers will be parsing this data closely for signs of persistent inflation. With headline inflation back above 4% and energy‑driven pressures unlikely to ease immediately, the Fed faces a tricky balance: acknowledge the progress in core inflation without ignoring the renewed squeeze on consumers. For households, the picture is similarly mixed—some categories are stabilizing, but the basics of daily life remain noticeably more expensive than a year ago.

The new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, faces a sharp collision between immense political pressure to cut interest rates and May’s hot inflation report that makes a rate reduction nearly impossible. The European Central Bank just raised rates, saying the risk of inflation caused by the shock rising energy prices must be countered.

Add to that the report on Producer Prices for May. The PPI captures inflation at the wholesale level—before costs reach consumers. PPI rose 1.1% month‑over‑month, matching the prior month but exceeding expectations of 0.7%. It rose 6.5% year‑over‑year, slightly above the 6.4% consensus and up from 5.7% previously.

Combined with rising unemployment claims, in spite of the positive employment numbers for May, these reports point to a cooling labor market but persistent inflation. That is the Federal Reserve’s nightmare.

As for Donald Trump, across multiple on‑camera exchanges, Trump responded to questions about inflation by saying:

“You know what I really love? I love the inflation.”

“The numbers were great… I love the inflation.”

Donald Trump, International Business Times UK

He later told the New York Post that he meant he “loved” that inflation wasn’t even higher, arguing his comments were taken out of context. He said the inflation spike is a temporary consequence of the U.S.-Iran war, and insisted inflation will “come down like a rock” once the war in Iran ends.

Two notes. The consensus among economists is that even if the war were to end today, it will take months if not a year for prices to recover. And also, Trump has repeatedly predicted an end to the war he started more than 100-days ago. CNN has put together a devastating video montage.

We shall see.

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