Let’s See…..
Let’s see if I have this straight.
Donald Trump set a deadline of 8pm April 7 for Iran to stop attacking ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Over the Easter weekend, Trump posted an obscene threat to Iran promising Iranians will be “living in hell” if they do not comply by the deadline. On the morning of April 7, Trump posted another threat, promising, “A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again.”
A little more than an hour before the deadline, with some reports saying that long-range bombers were already enroute to the Middle East from their bases in the United States, Trump announced an agreement for a two-week ceasefire.
Trump and his supporters see this as an example of superior deal-making. Keep your opponent under pressure and uncertain of your next step.
Critics see it as just another example of what they call Trump’s TACO tendency, as in, “Trump Always Chickens Out.”
The whiplash alone will kill us.
Trump justified his attack on Iran with the claim that the country was very close to having a nuclear warhead and the missiles to deliver it. Nothing has been released to back up that claim. Jonathan Swan and Maggie Haberman have reported in The New York Times details about Trump’s decision-making process. They say their information comes from reporting for their forthcoming book, “Regime Change: Inside the Imperial Presidency of Donald Trump.” The article indicates there was considerable skepticism from most of Trump’s national security staff about the decision. Strong support came only from Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth. Hegseth has argued that the sole purpose of the military is “lethality,” specifically, the efficient killing of enemies to break their will. Hegseth has also characterized the conflict with Iran as a religious battle.
There is no mention of these arguments in Trump’s post announcing the cease fire. There is a reference to the “COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz….” From that it is clear Trump’s mind is now focused on the price of gasoline, soaring to well over four dollars a gallon on average and as high as five dollars a gallon in some parts of the United States.
It is the price at the pump that will have the greatest impact on voters in November. Trump clearly fears he and his Republican enablers will suffer. History says he will be right. So now, and only now, the closing of the shipping lane which transports twenty percent of the world’s energy supply is of concern. Ben Rhodes, a deputy national security advisor to President Barak Obama, observes that Trump’s newly announced deal is a move to “reopen a Strait that was open before the pointless war he started”.
It is not clear that Trump’s two-week cease fire has even accomplished that goal. Iran’s response, which Trump himself posted, says “safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible via coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces and with due consideration of technical limitations.
Those “technical limitations” appear to include forcing ships to travel within Iran’s territorial waters and reportedly will include the payment of a toll to Iran. Trump has stated that perhaps the answer is for the United States and Iran to share that toll for passage.
In any event, Iran has kept the Strait closed, claiming it predicated opening the Strait on Israel ending its military action in Lebanon. Trump has denied any such promise was even discussed, let alone part of the agreement.
More negotiations are planned.
The Strait of Hormuz is not like the Suez Canal, or the Erie Canal, or the St. Lawrence Seaway. Those are manmade structures located completely within a sovereign nation. The Strait of Hormuz is a natural waterway, connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman. It is bordered not only by Iran, but also by Oman and the United Arab Emirates. As such it is an international waterway. There is an established route in its center. No tolls are charged and interfering with the right of passage violates international law.
Not that Iran cares about any of that. As for Trump, he has admitted that he “goes with his gut.” He doesn’t take advice because he believes he is always the smartest person in the room. He also knows or cares little about history or he would know Iran has blocked or threatened to block the Strait many times before. Only now, with his MAGA acolytes screaming to their congressmen, is he paying attention.
Who benefits from Trump’s actions? Believe it or not, Iran and Russia. In an attempt to push gas prices down, Trump is temporarily lifting sanctions on Russian oil that is currently at sea, allowing it to be shipped to buyers around the world. The sanctions were designed to pressure Russia into ending its military campaign in Ukraine. Oil and gas exports are Russia’s primary source of revenue. Russian will rake in the profits, which it will use to further the war it is fighting with Ukraine.
As incredible as that seems, for his next act Trump waived sanctions on Iranian oil purchases at sea for 30 days. This will pour hundreds of millions of dollars into Iran’s treasury. Which they can use to buy and build more missiles, drones, and bombs to fire on America soldiers and bases in the region. And, naturally, at Israel. All to ease surging oil prices in the US.
You can’t make this stuff up.
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