Category Archives: Financial

Trump’s Economy

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The charts above are certainly things Donald Trump did not want to see. Unemployment rate up. Total employment down. They come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics‘ report on employment in the United States for August. Just last month the July report, showing a slowing economy, led Trump to fire BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer. I wrote a few weeks ago that it was a case of shooting the messenger. Trump falsely claimed downward revisions in the August report were “rigged” to make Republicans look bad. BLS revisions are routine and based on updated employer data. It would be nearly impossible to “rig.”

Just 22,000 nonfarm payroll jobs were added in August. That was below expectations and continued the summer slowdown. The Unemployment Rate rose slightly to 4.3%, up from 4.2% in July. Long-Term Unemployment held steady at 1.93 million, now representing over 25% of all unemployed individuals.

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The Trump Recession

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The Trump Recession is upon us. Not officially, that could take months. But the handwriting is on the wall. Just as clear as it was one year ago when every creditable economist warned Donald Trump’s plans for trade tariffs and government layoffs would knock the Goldilocks economy of Joe Biden off its feet. Seventy-seven million voters didn’t believe it. Or didn’t care. Now they can care. Or not. It’s hard to tell.

The latest GDP report shows that the U.S. economy contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025, marking a sharp downturn from the 2.4% growth in the final quarter of 2024. This decline was largely driven by a surge in imports ahead of Trump’s newly announced tariffs, which widened the trade deficit and negatively impacted GDP calculations.

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Here We Go Again

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It was about 3:00am the day after the election in 2016 when I came to the conclusion that Donald Trump would win, beating Hillary Clinton. This time, I knew it at midnight.

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It’s Still the Economy, Stupid

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One thing the political polls agree on is the number one concern on the minds of voters. It’s the economy. It is ALWAYS the economy.

The problem, at least for Vice President Harris, is that what voters call the economy is not what economists call the economy. What voters mean when they say economy is prices as in, the price of a gallon of gasoline, the price of a bottle of milk, the price of a dozen eggs. Those prices are up. And as is usual, the incumbent gets the blame.

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Pay to Play: The American Way

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Money has always been a big factor in American politics. You can’t outright pay politicians in return for their vote on an issue of interest to you. That’s bribery and it’s a crime. 18 U.S. Code § 201. But you can come very close. That’s because it costs a tremendous amount of money to run for public office and we leave it to the politicians to raise their own funds.

State-wide races for governor, state legislator, or U.S. House or Senate seats can cost hundreds of thousands or millions of dollars. A major state-wide campaign requires a hefty advertising budget and paid staff to handle things like communications, strategic planning, finances, and legal compliance.

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GameStop – The Casino at Broad and Wall

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I thought it was a very strange story. “Analysts confounded by GameStop price moves” read the headline in the business section of one of the world’s most widely read newspapers. “Recent volatility in the stock of GameStop has confused analysts following the video game retailor” read the lede line.

That there had been great volatility in the price of a share of GameStop was not debatable. The stock was trading below $20 a share at the end of 2020. On January 29, 2021 it hit $325. That’s a jump of 1,625%. If you had bought 100 shares on December 31, you would have paid $2,000. On January 29, one month later, your 100 shares would have been worth $32,500. If you think you understand the stock market that is a mindboggling increase. Certainly one to “confound” and “confuse.” But as your intrepid reporter wrote in my primer for the National Center for Business Journalism, stock markets are not what they used to be.

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Updates and tidbits

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Back from Space

SpaceX’s Dragon Demo-2 flight has ended with the successful return to earth of NASA astronauts Bob Behnken and Doug Hurley after spending more than two months on the International Space Station. As I wrote at the time of their launch, this flight marks the return to America of the ability to send humans into space.

After the retirement of the Space Shuttle in 2000, Americans who wanted to go the the ISS had to buy a seat on a Russian rocket. NASA began, during the Obama-Biden administration, what is called the “Commercial Crew” program effectively outsourcing this task to private industry. SpaceX is the first to successfully demonstrate this capability. This flight was named “Demo-2.” The first regularly contracted flight of the Crew Dragon is set to take four astronauts, three Americans and one Japanese, to the space station later this year.

As they left the capsule Behnken and Hurley thanks the SpaceX team. The SpaceX communicator said, “Thanks for riding SpaceX.” For America’s space program, a new day has begun.

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