Scott Gurvey's Public Offerings

The Trump Recession is upon us. Not officially, that could take months. But the handwriting is on the wall. Just as clear as it was one year ago when every creditable economist warned Donald Trump’s plans for trade tariffs and government layoffs would knock the Goldilocks economy of Joe Biden off its feet. Seventy-seven million voters didn’t believe it. Or didn’t care. Now they can care. Or not. It’s hard to tell.

The latest GDP report shows that the U.S. economy contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025, marking a sharp downturn from the 2.4% growth in the final quarter of 2024. This decline was largely driven by a surge in imports ahead of Trump’s newly announced tariffs, which widened the trade deficit and negatively impacted GDP calculations.

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