Tag Archives: finance

Trump’s Economy

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The charts above are certainly things Donald Trump did not want to see. Unemployment rate up. Total employment down. They come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics‘ report on employment in the United States for August. Just last month the July report, showing a slowing economy, led Trump to fire BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer. I wrote a few weeks ago that it was a case of shooting the messenger. Trump falsely claimed downward revisions in the August report were “rigged” to make Republicans look bad. BLS revisions are routine and based on updated employer data. It would be nearly impossible to “rig.”

Just 22,000 nonfarm payroll jobs were added in August. That was below expectations and continued the summer slowdown. The Unemployment Rate rose slightly to 4.3%, up from 4.2% in July. Long-Term Unemployment held steady at 1.93 million, now representing over 25% of all unemployed individuals.

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The Trump Recession

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The Trump Recession is upon us. Not officially, that could take months. But the handwriting is on the wall. Just as clear as it was one year ago when every creditable economist warned Donald Trump’s plans for trade tariffs and government layoffs would knock the Goldilocks economy of Joe Biden off its feet. Seventy-seven million voters didn’t believe it. Or didn’t care. Now they can care. Or not. It’s hard to tell.

The latest GDP report shows that the U.S. economy contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025, marking a sharp downturn from the 2.4% growth in the final quarter of 2024. This decline was largely driven by a surge in imports ahead of Trump’s newly announced tariffs, which widened the trade deficit and negatively impacted GDP calculations.

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