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A Proportional Response

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Photo: Iranian missiles over Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem, courtesy of Mehr News Service under a Creative Commons 4.0 license.

There was significant activity on the military front in the Mideast last week. The events changed the calculus for diplomacy in the region and could lead to new opportunities for peace, if the principals are willing to consider them.

It started on Saturday when Iran launched an unprecedented retaliatory attack on Israel, primarily from its own soil, but also by Iran-backed groups in several other countries. Here are some details:

  • Missiles and Drones: Iran fired hundreds of missiles and drones from its own territory.
  • Saturation Strategy: The assault aimed to saturate Israeli and U.S. air defenses with drones and cruise missiles, clearing the way for Iran’s ballistic missiles.
  • Alerts and Intercept: Alerts began sounding across Israel at about 2 a.m. local time on Sunday (7 p.m. Eastern on Saturday, April 13). Virtually everything fired at Israel was intercepted before entering the country’s territory.
  • Drones: Iran launched 170 drones at Israel from Iran. Israeli Air Force jets shot down dozens of them, and U.S. aircraft operating from bases in Saudi Arabia and Jordan shot down between 70 and 80 more.
  • Cruise Missiles: None of the more than thirty cruise missiles fired by Iran crossed into Israeli territory.
  • Ballistic Missiles: Of the 120 ballistic missiles fired at Israel from Iran, only five got through Israeli and U.S. air defenses and hit Israeli territory. Roughly half of the ballistic missiles failed on launch or crashed in flight.
  • Targets: Four missiles hit Israel’s Nevatim Air Base, where Israeli F-35s are based. Another ballistic missile appeared to have been aimed at a radar site in northern Israel but missed its target.
  • Bases: According to Iranian authorities, underground missile bases or silos exist in all provinces and cities of Iran. These bases contain road-mobile transporter erector launcher trucks and other hardware.

The attack had been expected. It followed an April 1 Israeli strike on a building in Syria which killed seven officers from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards, including two generals. Israel claims the building was used by the Iranian military and the generals had directed the October 7 slaughter of 1,200 Israeli civilians. They claimed the Iranians were in Syria to meet with Iran’s proxies Hamas and Hezbollah to plot new attacks on Israel.

Iran said the building that was targeted was part of the Iranian embassy and complained an attack on a diplomatic mission violated international law. That’s more than a little pathetic when you consider that on November 4, 1979, Iranian thugs broke into the U.S. embassy in downtown Tehran, captured virtual every American working there and held ninety-eight of them hostage for 444 days. Irony is apparently lost on the Iranians. But as we see repeatedly there is a double standard when it comes to international law, one for the United States and Israel, another for Iran and its terrorist proxies.

Iran’s “Firsts”

Iran’s attack marks several “firsts” in this conflict. It was the first time Iran struck Israel directly. It was also the first time a “state” actor adopted the ways of the terrorists. Iran’s aerial bombardment was also indiscriminate, designed to terrorize civilians and inflict mass casualties. The picture above shows Iran’s rockets over the Al-Aqsa and Dome of the Rock mosques, which Muslims constructed on the site of the two Jewish Temples built on Mount Moriah. the Temple Mount. The mosques are under the custodianship of Jordan and are protected by the Israeli military. They are considered holy to Muslims. Clearly the Iranians don’t care if they are destroyed by falling debris from their missiles.

And in another first, the Iranian bombardment violated the rule of proportional response, a term of diplomacy. I’ve always had my doubts about the wisdom of a proportional response. The idea behind a proportional response is to avoid an uncontrolled escalation of hostilities and maintain a balance in the conflict. It can be argued that Israel’s response to the Hamas slaughter of October 7 was “disproportional.” For the same reason, Iran’s response to Israeli’s April 1 killing of Iranian generals was “disproportional.” When Iran and its proxies have promised to attack Israel over and over until Israel disappears, and with the Ayatollahs who run Iran extending their pledge to promise the destruction of the entire Jewish people, the idea of responding in a manner proportional to the provocation seems to be a useless exercise.

Everybody Else’s “Firsts”

So, Iran crossed the line. It certainly expected its barrage on Israel would result in mass casulties and great destruction. It would further demoralize a nation still reeling from the damage done on Octover 7. And it would proclaim Iran to be the new power in the Mideast. If you follow Iran’s social media, that’s exactly what happened. Only, it didn’t.

By all measures, Iran’s attack was a complete failure. More than 95% of the incoming missiles and drones were intercepted before they reached Israel. Others were destroyed in unoccupied areas before they could reach the ground and detonate. Much credit is due the Israelis, who have a three-layer defense screen to protect against incoming ordinance. Some of that technology was built on top of American systems and some was developed jointly. But most was home-grown in Israel. It was a dramatic “first” which would give any would-be attacker pause before they tried again.

Israeli’s air force was also active in the skies that night. And they had help. Both American and British ships and planes were engaged helping to shoot down the Iranian fire. And in another remarkable “first,” and at a time when liberal opinion in the U.S. was elegantly wringing its hands about Israeli ruthlessness in Gaza destroying any possibility of Arab-Israeli cooperation, Jordan and Saudi Arabia came to Israel’s defense against the Iranian attacks.

The active participation of two of Israeli’s former enemies is a game changer. Iran must be feeling very isolated right now. And there is a possibility, remote perhaps but real, that the new coalition will provide a glimmer of hope for peace in a region that has not known peace for generations.

There is already evidence that Israel has taken this under consideration in determining a proportional response to this latest round of tit-for-tat. Rather than answer Iran with an equal barrage of missiles, Israel attacked one military base far away from civil population centers. It used air launched missiles. And one of its home-grown supersonic smart bombs easily penetrated Iranian defenses and destroyed an Iranian anti-aircraft battery. Without damaging Iranian nuclear facilities nearby.

A less than proportional response to give Iran much to think about, and to usher in the Passover season.

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Prayer Trumps Policy

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(Speaker Mike Johnson leads GOP Members of Congress in prayer on the House floor – CSPAN)

Critical assistance for Ukraine, which was approved by the Senate, is languishing in the House. The same is true for assistance for Israel. The impending budget crisis which threatened to shut down the government was punted down the field again with an agreement that keeps operations going until the end of the fiscal year in September but threatens to come back in full force two months before the election.

Instead of tackling these tricky policy issues, the House has taken a two-week vacation, the Presidents’ Day recess.

House Speaker Mike Johnson, Republican from Louisiana, is not laying in the sun. But he’s not doing the nation’s business either. The speaker and his leadership team went to Miami for a retreat and, according to a Politico story based on multiple first-hand accounts, Johnson’s presentation there “took on a surprisingly religious tone.”

Quoting people who were in the room, the Political story says, “Rather than outlining a specific plan to hold and grow the majority, these people said, Johnson effectively delivered a sermon.” Portraying Johnson as just a pious Christian causes the public to overlook the way he manipulates Christianity to exert power. “I’m not at church,” one told Politico.

Two people quoted by Politico said that Johnson “attempted to rally the group by discussing moral decline in America — focusing on declining church membership and the nation’s shrinking religious identity.” According to them, Johnson “contended that when one doesn’t have God in their life, the government or ‘state’ will become their guide, referring back to Bible verses.”

Like everybody else in America, Johnson is entitled to his religious views. And he is entitled to express those views in appropriate settings. But the House floor is not the proper venue. More disturbingly, Johnson has taught classes miseducating Americans about church-state separation and perpetuated the myth that the United States, which has no national religion by Constitutional design, is a “Christian nation.“

Those same Republicans advocate adherence to the views of the framers of the Constitution. And while it is true a majority would have identified themselves as Christian, they explicitly considered, and rejected, the idea of declaring Christianity, or any other religion, as the offical religion of the new nation.

“Congress shall make no law respecting the establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof….”  begins the great First Amendment. Its langugae, and its prominent position as the first item in the Bill of Rights, make its meaning clear. In his sermon-like speeches, Johnson cherry-picks statements of the founders and distorts the historic background of the Religion Clause.

Johnson would be best served by reflecting on another quote from President James Madison written in 1822: “We are teaching the World the great truth, that Governments do better without Kings & Nobles than with them. The merit will be doubled by the other lesson, that Religion flourishes in greater purity, without than with the aid of Government.”

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Mike the Misinformed

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Republicans scraped the bottom of the barrel last October when they elected the little-known Mike Johnson of Louisiana Speaker of the House of Representatives and second in line to the Presidency of the United States. Johnson emerged as the fourth Republican nominee in what had become a clown show of political infighting after the Republican caucus threw out Speaker Kevin McCarthy. Johnson’s election required fifteen votes.

McCarthy was voted out of the job in an extraordinary showdown, a first in U.S. history, forced by a gang of hard-right conservative Republicans. The vote threw the House and its Republican leadership into chaos. McCarthy’s crime was to have reached a bipartisan agreement with Democrats to fund the government for a brief period to prevent a shutdown.

Johnson may be relatively unknown, but in this era where everything is recorded, he has amassed a formidable public record putting him on the hard right of the party, and the nation. Johnson is an ally of former president Donald Trump. He opposed certifying the 2020 election. He is anti-abortion and supports LGBTQ restrictions.

His pro-Trump position won Mike the support of the chaos caucus, consisting of Republican House members such as Lauren Boebert of Colorado, Matt Gaetz of Florida, Louie Gohmert of Texas, and Andy Harris of Maryland. That’s the group that toppled Kevin McCarthy.

The inexperienced Johnson figured he could retain the support of the ultra-right Republican members and steer the body to a budget bill. He was misinformed. Johnson couldn’t pass a budget and made the same deal as McCarthy, a continuing resolution to fund the government through the Christmas holiday recess. Coming back to work in January Johnson failed again and the result was the third continuing resolution of this congress, signed on January 19. This extension is “laddered”, having different expiration dates for various parts. But another shutdown looms on March 8.

What is Johnson doing? He sent the House home for a two-week vacation.

The budget is the most important task the House of Representatives faces. The Constitution requires that all spending bills originate in that body. (Article I, Section 9, Clause 7) But there is a lengthy list of issues pending on which the House must act.

We need only turn on the evening news to be aware of the border crisis, with tens of thousands of would-be immigrants arriving at the southern border claiming asylum. It is the source of hundreds of hours of programming on the Fox Channel. And it is the lead Republican election issue, with Donnie Trump leading the party faithful into decrying the so-called Biden Border Crisis.

In fact, the immigration problem has stymied Washington for decades and both parties are to blame. Compromises have been reached but have failed to clear both houses of Congress in the same session. Most recently, legislation tightening border security but failing to revise the outdated asylum process, which dates to 1948, or to provide a path to citizenship for immigrants already in the country was submitted in the Senate. Those were key Democratic demands. But the Democrats sacrificed them all to attract enough Republic support to pass the bill. Then Donald Trump opened his mouth.

Trump, it seems, doesn’t want to eliminate the immigration crisis. Trump wants to keep the crisis going so he can use it as a campaign issue. Mike Johnson, originally believing the new law could pass, turned out to have been misinformed again. Once Trump indicated his opposition, Republican support for border security disappeared in both houses. So now it’s the Trump Border Crisis.

What is Johnson doing? He sent the House home for a two-week vacation.

On foreign affairs Johnson had good reason to believe he could get his Republican faithful to support the kind of robust policy Republicans have traditionally shown for democratic governments fighting against repression and Russian dominance. Think again.

The Senate passed foreign assistance legislation to aid Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. Ukraine is running out of ammunition two-years after the Russian invasion. Israel is battling Hamas storm troopers who invaded their country on October 7. And Taiwan faces the growing threat of a Chinese invasion across the 110 mile straight separating it from the mainland. But if Johnson thought he could rally support from his members, he was once again misinformed.

Trump is the guy pulling Johnson’s strings. And Trump is impressed by the dictator class. He prefers Putin to democracy. We can all imagine Ronald Reagan turning over in his grave. Meanwhile the chaos caucus is lost back somewhere at the beginning of the twentieth century, opposing American “entanglements” overseas. Those of us who have studied history know how that came out.

What is Johnson doing? With Ukraine running out of artillery shells, Johnson sent the House home for a two-week vacation.

There is one item on the Republican agenda which is still moving forward. That is the investigation into Hunter Biden and the impeachment investigation into President Biden. James Comer of Kentucky continues to claim he has evidence, which he has never revealed, that supports the charges against the Bidens. Comer’s principal witness, Alexander Smirnov, has been indicted for lying about the Biden’s to the FBI. Reports allege Smirnov has been linked to a Russian intelligence operation to influence the 2024 election. The fact the FBI has determined Smirnov’s testimony is not only worthless but actually part of a Russian disinformation campaign directed against President Biden has not deterred Comer. The time-wasting investigation continues.

We would ask Johnson if, considering this news, he intends to continue the House impeachment investigation. But we will have to wait until the Speaker returns. He is on vacation.

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Charles Osgood

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I heard him long before I met him. I remember sitting in the cafeteria CBS had set up in the basement of New York’s Madison Square Garden to feed the hundreds of staff members it had brought to the 1976 Democratic National Convention. Believe it or not, in those days the political conventions meant something and, in part because of legal requirements, they were extensively covered by broadcasters.

Just two years out of journalism school, I had been sent by my employer, WBBM-TV, the CBS owned station in my hometown Chicago, to manage our coverage. Along with me was a terrific video crew and a wonderful reporter who needed no supervision and little assistance, and an anchorman who definitely needed both. Those are stories for another day. Today, I just want to talk about the voice.

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Peter Schickele

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I still remember the first time I heard the music of P.D.Q. Bach. On the program at New York’s Town Hall were the Echo Sonata for Two Unfriendly Groups of Instruments and the Schleptet in E♭ major. I was immediately hooked.

Each piece was introduced by Professor Peter Schickele of the Music Pathology Department, University of Southern North Dakota at Hoople. Schickele claimed to have discovered the work of P.D.Q, who he described as the 21st and least of the children of the great baroque composer Johann Sebastian Bach. Here is where things get a little dicey. J.S. Bach was certainly prolific. But he stopped at 20 children. And while there is a Hoople in North Dakota, there is no university there. I should have noted that the program listed P.D.Q.’s dates as “(1807–1742)?“

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GOP Clown Show Continues

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When we last visited the Clown Show, in January of 2023, we were talking about the farce the Republicans put on trying to elect a Speaker of the House of Representatives. Kevin McCarthy of California finally won the post on a historic fifteenth ballot. But power really lay with roughly fifteen right-win radical Republicans, who battled McCarthy relentlessly.

I took a break from this subject as the GOP stumbled though one of the least productive House sessions on record. Now it’s time to catch up.

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