Scott Gurvey's Public Offerings

The charts above are certainly things Donald Trump did not want to see. Unemployment rate up. Total employment down. They come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics‘ report on employment in the United States for August. Just last month the July report, showing a slowing economy, led Trump to fire BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer. I wrote a few weeks ago that it was a case of shooting the messenger. Trump falsely claimed downward revisions in the August report were “rigged” to make Republicans look bad. BLS revisions are routine and based on updated employer data. It would be nearly impossible to “rig.”

Just 22,000 nonfarm payroll jobs were added in August. That was below expectations and continued the summer slowdown. The Unemployment Rate rose slightly to 4.3%, up from 4.2% in July. Long-Term Unemployment held steady at 1.93 million, now representing over 25% of all unemployed individuals.

Health Care was the only major sector with notable job gains. Federal Government & Mining both shed jobs, with federal employment down by 15,000.

In his first remarks after the report, Trump blamed Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. “Jerome ‘Too Late’ Powell should have lowered rates long ago. As usual, he’s ‘Too Late!'” Trump posted to his Truth Social platform. Trump has been pressuring the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates for months, arguing they are needlessly stifling the economy by keeping borrowing costs too high. He has sought to wield greater political influence over the traditionally independent central bank.

This latest jobs report increases the chances that the Fed will cut interest rates at the September meeting of its Federal Open Market Committee. Powell has signaled that this is likely. Market expectations are also predicting a rate cut in September.

#####