Trump Guilty
Donald Trump is now the first president to be tried and convicted of a crime, a Manhattan jury finding him guilty of falsifying records to cover up hush money paid to a porn star. It is the third time a jury of his peers has found him guilty, the previous two cases involving civil lawsuits for sexual abuse and defamation.
The criminal verdict is the result of things Trump did during his successful run for the presidency in 2016. After nine hours of deliberations, a jury of five women and seven men found the former president guilty on all of the 34 counts he faced.
I’ve written before that this is not my favorite of the cases pending against Trump. It is an unusual combination of a series of misdemeanor offenses to make a felony, issues that will certainly come up on appeal. Still pending, and almost certainly NOT going to trial before the November election, Trump is charged for his violent attempt to overturn the previous election. He is charged with stealing classified government documents and showing them off at his pay-for-access vacation club. He is charged with creating an elaborate conspiracy to manipulate state governments to install fake electors. Still, he is now a convicted felon. What’s Next?
The Appeal
Of course there will be one. But it is not clear what form it will take. Trump’s lawyers have already announced their plans to challenge the verdict. They have several grounds judging by the various pre-trial motions and the objections during the trial. In New York, the appeals process is long and complicated. Trump might start with a series of post-trial motions, asking for a mistrial, asking to set aside the jury verdict, or asking the judge to reconsider the result. All would be expected to be denied. Next would come an appeal to the Appellate Division and, if that fails, to New York’s highest court which is called, just to confuse people, the Court of Appeals.
If all that fails, a defendant could petition for a review by the Supreme Court of the United States. The Republican majority on that court has already made several moves which have helped Trump, mainly by delaying the other trials pending against him. Trump has already suggested in social media posts that the Supreme Court should step in right now and overturn the New York decision, writing,
“A Radical Left Soros backed D.A., who ran on a platform of ‘I will get Trump,’ reporting to an ‘Acting’ Local Judge, appointed by the Democrats, who is HIGHLY CONFLICTED, will make a decision which will determine the future of our Nation? The United States Supreme Court MUST DECIDE!”.
Several of his Republican acolytes in public office have supported that move. To preempt the state appeals process would be an unprecedented and clearly biased intervention by the high court and would reflect poorly on its impartiality. But this court has been so obviously biased in Trump’s favor that the majority would certainly want to throw out the New York conviction and several of the Republicans on the court have already placed the court’s impartiality in question. It it not beyond the realm of possibility that it could take the case on a direct appeal.
The Republican Speaker of the House of Representatives, Mike Johnson of Louisiana, a staunch Trump supporter, has already weighed in,
“I think that the justices on the court, I know many of them personally, I think they’re deeply concerned. I think they’ll set this straight, but it’s going to take a while.”
The Campaign
You would think this criminal conviction would finally end Trump’s campaign. Think again. The die hard MAGA crowd is more supportive after than before. They have, according to the Republican bean counters, increased their campaign contributions in response to Trump’s pleas for donations to fund his reelection and his promised “retribution” for what he calls his persecution. Opinion polls taken since the verdict indicate that while Trump’s support among the faithful is unshaken, his support among non-committed voters has slipped slightly. Just slightly.
Donald Trump may now be a felon. His campaign chairman is a felon. So is his deputy campaign manager, his personal lawyer, his chief strategist, his National Security Adviser, his Trade Advisor, his Foreign Policy Adviser, his campaign fixer, and his company CFO. They are all felons. Yet his campaign remains viable and the outcome so far too close to call.
Moreover, the guilty verdict is being used as a major campaign issue. The MAGA crowd in the Republican party, amplified by Rupert Murdock‘s authoritarian media machine including Fox, The Wall Street Journal, and the New York Post, have framed this as the “weaponization” of the Department of Justice and the Biden Administration. Republicans in Congress have supported that fantasy.
The utter absurdity of this accusation is obvious to anyone with a brain. Local state officials brought the New York case. The DoJ and President Biden have nothing to do with it. At the same time, the supposedly “weaponized” DoJ is prosecuting a senior Democratic senator, Bob Menendez of New Jersey, and Democratic representative, Henry Cuellar of Texas, and his wife. The DoJ is also prosecuting President Biden’s son Hunter on tax charges. It has already won a conviction of Hunter Biden on gun charges.
What’s Next?
On June 27th Biden and Trump are scheduled to meet in a debate. I am not willing to bet on whether that event ever takes place but if it does it should be fascinating. Will President Biden raise Trump’s conviction as a topic for discussion? How will Trump react if he does? Will Trump be able to play his usual victim card? Will he try to hang the Hunter Biden conviction around Joe’s neck? This reads like a bad script for a streaming service release.
And then on July 11th, for the first time in American history, a former president is scheduled to be sentenced for his crimes. Donald Trump will report to the same New York courtroom where he was convicted to find out if he faces jail. Most legal experts believe it is unlikely Trump will be sentenced to a jail term on these charges. But it is also expected that prior to sentencing a convicted felon will express some remorse. Or at least some respect for the legal system. Trump has practically invited jail by attacking the judge, the prosecutors, and the entire legal process. Who knows how the judge will react?
Just a few days later, the Republican party, the party of Abraham Lincoln, is planning to name Trump its candidate for the 2024 presidential election. You can’t make this up. No one would believe it.
#####
Scott Gurvey's Public Offerings 
Pingback: The Supremes Vote Trump | Scott Gurvey's Public Offerings