Scott Gurvey's Public Offerings

The chattering class had a field day over the weekend pontificating on the presidential debate scheduled for Thursday, June 27, at 9pm ET on CNN. As usual when the Know-It-Alls get together, there was a lot of noise but little substance. I never expected there would be any debates between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, and I still have a thought that this event might be called off. If not, it should be quite a spectacle, more entertaining than reality TV.

Speculation on performance is just a wild guess. There are just too many unknowns. Still, the YouGov people did some polling on expectations, which makes for interesting reading. Respondents most want the candidates to discuss inflation, followed by border security, health care, social security, the national debt, taxes, corruption, democracy and abortion, in that order.

The moderators for this debate will be CNN anchors Jake Tapper and Dana Bash. In a departure from past debates, there will be no live audience, and the candidates’ microphones will be muted until it is their turn to speak. There will also be two commercial breaks during the 90-minute broadcast. And candidates are not permitted to bring any pre-written notes to the podium.

This debate could be a game-changer in the election as most national polls show Trump and Biden statistically tied. Of the top issues, the first two would seem to favor Trump, the next two Biden.

Both sides are managing expectations. Biden supporters have been highlighting Trump’s nonsensical campaign speeches while Trump supporters are charging Biden can’t perform unless he takes drugs and demanding Biden take a drug test. They never say if Trump is willing to take one himself.

The Trump-Biden debates in 2020 turned more on performance. Biden came across as a calm and collected father figure with a command of the facts for the most part. Biden did get argumentative when Trump reached him with his personal attacks.

Trump spent most of the debate in Biden’s face, constantly interrupting, rude, crude, and personal in his attacks. To me, he came off as deranged and that hurt him in 2020. His base, on the other hand, loves that strategy.

That raises the question, will the new rule shutting off the candidate’s microphone except when it is their turn to answer help Biden or Trump most? It will protect Biden from Trump’s vicious attacks, but it will also keep the audience from hearing them.

Trump loves to play to the audience, which in 2020 he packed with vocal supporters. This time, there will be no live audience. That should be an advantage for Biden. Biden also benefits from the two commercial breaks. I have not, not, as Trump’s nasty commercials are charging, seen a mental deficiency in Biden. But I do see a physical weakness I did not see four years ago. Biden should benefit from the rest time the commercials afford.

If Trump tries to overcome the cutting of his microphone when his time is up and when Biden is speaking by yelling and demonstrating it would work to his disadvantage. I think if he restrains himself the microscope restrictions can help him.

To my ears, Trump’s campaign speeches have drifted into deranged rants that make no sense. I have twice seen Fox, the Trump network, cutaway from his speeches I suspect to save him the embarrassment of his own words. Will we see them Thursday? If both candidates show up, I’m expecting some “Must See TV”.

A second debate is scheduled for Sept. 10, 2024, and will be hosted by ABC.

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