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Photo: Iranian missiles over Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem, courtesy of Mehr News Service under a Creative Commons 4.0 license.

There was significant activity on the military front in the Mideast last week. The events changed the calculus for diplomacy in the region and could lead to new opportunities for peace, if the principals are willing to consider them.

It started on Saturday when Iran launched an unprecedented retaliatory attack on Israel, primarily from its own soil, but also by Iran-backed groups in several other countries. Here are some details:

• Missiles and Drones: Iran fired hundreds of missiles and drones from its own territory.
• Saturation Strategy: The assault aimed to saturate Israeli and U.S. air defenses with drones and cruise missiles, clearing the way for Iran’s ballistic missiles.
• Alerts and Intercept: Alerts began sounding across Israel at about 2 a.m. local time on Sunday (7 p.m. Eastern on Saturday, April 13). Virtually everything fired at Israel was intercepted before entering the country’s territory.
• Drones: Iran launched 170 drones at Israel from Iran. Israeli Air Force jets shot down dozens of them, and U.S. aircraft operating from bases in Saudi Arabia and Jordan shot down between 70 and 80 more.
• Cruise Missiles: None of the more than thirty cruise missiles fired by Iran crossed into Israeli territory.
• Ballistic Missiles: Of the 120 ballistic missiles fired at Israel from Iran, only five got through Israeli and U.S. air defenses and hit Israeli territory. Roughly half of the ballistic missiles failed on launch or crashed in flight.
• Targets: Four missiles hit Israel’s Nevatim Air Base, where Israeli F-35s are based. Another ballistic missile appeared to have been aimed at a radar site in northern Israel but missed its target.
• Bases: According to Iranian authorities, underground missile bases or silos exist in all provinces and cities of Iran. These bases contain road-mobile transporter erector launcher trucks and other hardware.

The attack had been expected. It followed an April 1 Israeli strike on a building in Syria which killed seven officers from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards, including two generals. Israel claims the building was used by the Iranian military and the generals had directed the October 7 slaughter of 1,200 Israeli civilians. They claimed the Iranians were in Syria to meet with Iran’s proxies Hamas and Hezbollah to plot new attacks on Israel.

Iran said the building that was targeted was part of the Iranian embassy and complained an attack on a diplomatic mission violated international law. That’s more than a little pathetic when you consider that on November 4, 1979, Iranian thugs broke into the U.S. embassy in downtown Tehran, captured virtual every American working there and held ninety-eight of them hostage for 444 days. Irony is apparently lost on the Iranians. But as we see repeatedly there is a double standard when it comes to international law, one for the United States and Israel, another for Iran and its terrorist proxies.

Iran’s “Firsts”

Iran’s attack marks several “firsts” in this conflict. It was the first time Iran struck Israel directly. It was also the first time a “state” actor adopted the ways of the terrorists. Iran’s aerial bombardment was also indiscriminate, designed to terrorize civilians and inflict mass casualties. The picture above shows Iran’s rockets over the Al-Aqsa and Dome of the Rock mosques, which Muslims constructed on the site of the two Jewish Temples built on Mount Moriah. the Temple Mount. The mosques are under the custodianship of Jordan and are protected by the Israeli military. They are considered holy to Muslims. Clearly the Iranians don’t care if they are destroyed by falling debris from their missiles.

And in another first, the Iranian bombardment violated the rule of proportional response, a term of diplomacy. I’ve always had my doubts about the wisdom of a proportional response. The idea behind a proportional response is to avoid an uncontrolled escalation of hostilities and maintain a balance in the conflict. It can be argued that Israel’s response to the Hamas slaughter of October 7 was “disproportional.” For the same reason, Iran’s response to Israeli’s April 1 killing of Iranian generals was “disproportional.” When Iran and its proxies have promised to attack Israel over and over until Israel disappears, and with the Ayatollahs who run Iran extending their pledge to promise the destruction of the entire Jewish people, the idea of responding in a manner proportional to the provocation seems to be a useless exercise.

Everybody Else’s “Firsts”

So, Iran crossed the line. It certainly expected its barrage on Israel would result in mass casulties and great destruction. It would further demoralize a nation still reeling from the damage done on Octover 7. And it would proclaim Iran to be the new power in the Mideast. If you follow Iran’s social media, that’s exactly what happened. Only, it didn’t.

By all measures, Iran’s attack was a complete failure. More than 95% of the incoming missiles and drones were intercepted before they reached Israel. Others were destroyed in unoccupied areas before they could reach the ground and detonate. Much credit is due the Israelis, who have a three-layer defense screen to protect against incoming ordinance. Some of that technology was built on top of American systems and some was developed jointly. But most was home-grown in Israel. It was a dramatic “first” which would give any would-be attacker pause before they tried again.

Israeli’s air force was also active in the skies that night. And they had help. Both American and British ships and planes were engaged helping to shoot down the Iranian fire. And in another remarkable “first,” and at a time when liberal opinion in the U.S. was elegantly wringing its hands about Israeli ruthlessness in Gaza destroying any possibility of Arab-Israeli cooperation, Jordan and Saudi Arabia came to Israel’s defense against the Iranian attacks.

The active participation of two of Israeli’s former enemies is a game changer. Iran must be feeling very isolated right now. And there is a possibility, remote perhaps but real, that the new coalition will provide a glimmer of hope for peace in a region that has not known peace for generations.

There is already evidence that Israel has taken this under consideration in determining a proportional response to this latest round of tit-for-tat. Rather than answer Iran with an equal barrage of missiles, Israel attacked one military base far away from civil population centers. It used air launched missiles. And one of its home-grown supersonic smart bombs easily penetrated Iranian defenses and destroyed an Iranian anti-aircraft battery. Without damaging Iranian nuclear facilities nearby.

A less than proportional response to give Iran much to think about, and to usher in the Passover season.

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